Manchester United head into their weekend clash against Aston Villa with a point to prove. They have tasted defeat for the first time under head coach Michael Carrick, but know they can redeem themselves with a win on Sunday afternoon that would significantly strengthen their Champions League qualification hopes.
Villa have been on a slump under Unai Emery, while United have been on the rise under their new head coach. Their two paths are set to intersect in their respective bids for a top-four finish, with two transfer decisions pivotal in the determination of the match.
United targeted Premier League experience in the market last summer and felt there was ‘less risk’ attached to deals for Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo because of their track records in the English top-flight. They considered doing the same in attack and in goal, with Liam Delap their initial dream target to lead the line this season.
In the end, they took educated risks on Benjamin Sesko and Senne Lammens. They are both young players with enormous potential, but there was also an acceptance that they had a lot of work to do, while neither came with the same Premier League seal of approval that Cunha and Mbeumo did.
It is particularly relevant in the case of Aston Villa, because they could quite easily have ended up with Ollie Watkins and Emiliano Martinez instead. United explored a potential move for Watkins last summer as they looked to add guaranteed goals to their forward line, but Villa were reluctant to sell, and his suggested £60 million price tag was deemed too high for a striker who has since turned 30.
They instead opted to take a calculated gamble on Sesko for an initial fee of £66.3m. It certainly felt like a bold call, though the Slovenian actually had a much better minutes per goal average (145 compared with 203 for Watkins) and shot conversion rate (23.5% compared with 16.6%), while he represented better value for money at the age of just 22.
It has started to pay off already. Sesko and Watkins both have eight goals across all competitions this season, but once again, the United striker beats the Villa man for reliability. His goals have come during 1,480 minutes at a rate of a goal every 185 minutes, while Watkins’ have come during 2,609 minutes at a rate of a goal every 326 minutes.
The other big decision came at the very end of the window. Ruben Amorim wanted to go for the proven experience of Martinez in goal, while goalkeeping scout Tony Coton pushed for Lammens and was backed up by the club’s data department. Both deals felt alive on deadline day of the summer window, yet it was the Belgian who made the trip to Manchester for £18.1m instead.
United sources insist the choice was straightforward and cited several key metrics behind the decision. They said Lammens excelled when it came to sheer shot-stopping ability, his ability to claim crosses, and how rarely he made mistakes. Even when he does, he has the right personality to get it out of his system and go about his business seemingly unaffected by what has gone before.
Interestingly enough, Martinez ranks higher than Lammens for saves made per 90, save percentage, and passing accuracy in the Premier League this season. It doesn’t mean they made the wrong decision, though. United acknowledged that the Argentine had greater experience and a proven track record, but the Belgian is a long-term investment, someone with a higher ceiling, who will only get better with age.
That is the other important factor to consider. United are still fully invested in ‘Project 150’, in which one of the aims is to win the Premier League title when they celebrate the club’s 150th anniversary in 2028. By the end of that season, Sesko will be 24, and Lammens will be 25. Watkins will be 32 and Martinez 35.
Victory this weekend will significantly strengthen those hopes of Champions League football, in an important step towards the top table. It might sound rather simple, but to do that, they must score goals and keep them out at the other end. They chose Sesko and Lammens to do that.
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